Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A…

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PLoS Medicine

PLoS Medicine

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by Leigh F. Johnson, Margaret T. May, Rob E. Dorrington, Morna Cornell, Andrew Boulle, Matthias Egger, Mary-Ann Davies Background Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART

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Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A…